RAILA LOSES 2022 ELECTIONS WITH ONE YEAR TO GO. SAD

While it is safe to say Raila’s race to State House has collapsed slightly a year before general elections, it is with a measured sense of respect that those words are uttered. Raila has had many wins since 2017 when he lost his presidential bid for a record fourth time. In 2017, almost every political analyst said that Raila was a spent force. He had used his last bullet which fired off wide the mark.

In 2018 Raila would show his political nine lives when he pulled a genius masterstroke. He went into a working partnership with President Uhuru Kenyatta which subsequently sidelined Deputy President William Ruto. Ruto had been counting days to the time he would assume the highest office on land. He was not a deputy president but president in waiting. Many expected Ruto to compete against the now OKA members. After all Kenyans had voted to send Raila to Bondo for a well deserved retirement.

There was no way Ruto was going to lose presidential elections with support of Uhuru and Mt Kenya. Uhuruto had perfected a formula that was foolproof and had won two elections in a row. The idea was to have Rift Valley and Mt Kenya votes in one basket. With those secured, they would only need a few votes from other areas (through whatever means) to attain 50+1 required winning threshold.

When Raila and Uhuru became bosom buddies, the formula was thrown into the wind. While Ruto was left with Rift Valley largely intact, Mt Kenya was no longer given. Suddenly Raila had another chance to vie for the presidency.

Today Raila seems to have lost the elections a year before actual voting. Raila has lost in two fronts: Theoretically and Mathematically.

Theoretically

Unlike 2013, Raila supporters do not mirror a national outlook. His party a once formidable force is a shell of its former self. A few years ago everyone would have fought for a chance to be associated with ODM. Today no party has yet come forward to form a coalition with them. Even Jubilee had to release a statement saying they were not yet in an alliance with ODM. Who would have imagined parties would be ashamed of being associated with ODM?

Mathematically
Raila cannot summon 50+1 votes required to win the presidency. A day in politics is a long time but not for Raila. 2022 is gone and dusted.

Raila will be forced to pick a running mate from Mt Kenya. There is no compromise on that. President Uhuru will not be able to convince Central region to vote for Raila plus a deputy from another area. Even if BBI passes, he cannot give them a prime ministerial post. This is because Prime Minister can be fired anytime.

If he picks a running mate from central region, the likes of Musalia, Kalonzo and maybe Moi will go different ways. He will gain few votes compared to votes lost.

On the other hand, if Ruto picks a running mate from Mt Kenya he might get half of the votes from the region. This means that he will improvise on the formula they won with two times. He will be able to get votes from Eastern, Coast and Western regions. These are some of the areas that Raila has lost ground. Even in Nyanza, Ruto can get votes from Kuria and Kisii regions. The votes he will get will be more than the votes he might lose in Mt Kenya to Raila.

This is not to mean that Ruto is the one who will win the election. It provides a formula where any other person can win because Raila is severely disadvantaged as expounded above.

Many political analysts and wannabe have been calling Raila to shelve his political ambitions and endorse someone else. Maybe they have same reasons as those that have been outlined. Raila though is highly unlikely to endorse anyone else. Politics is like gambling. The more you play the more you get addicted. He will be on the ballot and for the fifth time he will lose. Sad.