RAILA ODINGA NEW DEAL WITH KALONZO MUSYOKA

The massive defections by Mt Kenya leaders to DP William Ruto’s camp have brought to the fore the crucial place Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka holds in ODM leader Raila Odinga’s 2022 bid.

Since it remains unknown how Mt Kenya will vote in the President Uhuru Kenyatta succession race, it could well be that Raila needs the former Vice President to build a political juggernaut against Ruto.

However, the former Prime Minister could be caught on the horns of a dilemma on what to offer Kalonzo and also balance the interests of Mt Kenya.

In the predicament, about 1.2 million votes in Ukambani that Raila bagged in the 2013 and 2017 elections are now under threat as he embarks on his fifth stab at the presidency.

Political observers hold that Kalonzo is important, whichever side he throws his weight behind, and therefore cannot be ignored.

However, it is also commonly agreed among pundits there are factors that could work against his reunion with Raila, age 76, on a larger scale, hence, the need to appease the Mt Kenya vote bastion.

Dr Charles Nyambuga, a political commentator from Maseno University, said, “Kalonzo is important to Raila, but Mt Kenya is more important compared to the Ukambani vote”.

“The vote basket in Mt Kenya can overrun that one very easily. Mt Kenya is the place to watch,” he said.

“If talking about a running mate, it is still Mt Kenya to watch. If you can get Mt Kenya and then have Kalonzo in the back, a win is clear. The question is what is in it for Kalonzo?” Dr Nyambuga told the Star.

He said the former Vice President is not only important for Raila but also Ruto “because getting him on your side means you have the 1.2 million votes, which is captive.

“Splitting the vote between the governors might not be easy because it would depend on which side Kalonzo okays,”he said.

The don said there would be trouble for Raila should he pick Kalonzo in a race where Ruto has a Mt Kenya running mate.

“If Raila picks Kalonzo, the Mt Kenya vote will run to the other side. If they both pick from Mt Kenya, you can hit propaganda,” Dr Nyambuga added.

Prof Gitile Naituli, an immediate former NCIC commissioner, said of all the Oka bigwigs, Kalonzo is the only one who would be significant to Raila.

Prof Naituli argues that the former VP controls a significant number of Kamba votes, not only in Makueni, Kitui, and Machakos but also in Mombasa county.

“This means he can give a candidate 25 per cent. However, Kalonzo needs Raila more. There are 10 counties in Mt Kenya. Raila is likely to get the 25 per cent in all those counties,” he said.

“If I were Kalonzo, I would go with Raila. He is just an attachment to the former PM. The fact that he can bring the Kambas makes a significant difference, though he needs Raila more than Raila needs him,” Prof Naituli said.

The thinking in Azimio la Umoja, however, is that discussions evolving around positions are premature and their priority is to respond to the country’s immediate challenges.

Uriri MP Mark Nyamitta, a key Raila ally, said their priority is to unite the people, then chart ways of handling the public debt crisis as well as address the effects of the pandemic on the economy.

“The team forming government must be one that will address the current challenges. One of the challenges is bringing people together. That coalition should be that one that carries everyone along,” the ODM legislator said.

“The spirit of Azimio is to first bring everyone on board. When we start looking at candidates from where they are coming from, it defeats the spirit of Azimio,” Nyamitta added.

The lawmaker, however, conceded that personality is still a factor in the country’s politics but said leaders worth their salt should show their people the way.

Kalonzo’s people have repeatedly said it’s time the ODM leader returned a helping hand, Kambas having supported him twice almost to the last man.

Makueni Senator Mutula Kilonzo Jr said no presidential candidate will take any contestant for granted as the presidential election will not be a walk in the park.

“Oka can easily put together 5.5 million votes. How this plays out in the first round or second round is a debate for another day. We are so far the only formidable coalition in the country,” he said.

“Every vote will matter in the next general election. Those who dismissed Oka as a bland breakfast cereal coalition have finally come to terms with the reality,” Mutula added.

The thinking in Wiper is that Raila should join the One Kenya Alliance, if they are to negotiate any terms with ANC’s Musalia Mudavadi, Kalonzo, Ford Kenya’s Moses Wetang’ula and Kanu’s Gideon Moi.

Kitui Central MP Makali Mulu, a key Kalonzo ally, said his party leader isn’t ready to deputies anybody and is the frontrunner in the Oka team.

“If he has to deputise Raila, it must be under an Oka arrangement, not under a Raila arrangement. We are not saying Kalonzo is special in any way. We have supported Raila twice and this is the right time for Kalonzo to take over,” Mulu said. “That is why we are insisting that if possible, Raila should join Oka.”

Mulu further said even if Kalonzo doesn’t become the president, he will be a kingmaker in the upcoming elections which are shaping up as a Raila versus Ruto duel.

“That’s the second option if the first option is not there,” the MP said, agreeing Mt Kenya’s numbers put the mountain on a higher pedestal to demand a running mate post.

But ODM stalwarts rebuffed the calls for Raila to join Oka, saying the former Prime Minister has been tried and tested.

“We have seen what Raila has been able to do. We also know and many Kenyans would agree DP Ruto’s side has caused us the trouble we are facing now,” Nyamitta said.

Dr Nyambuga said the complexity of weaving a matrix for the 2022 vote has shown the importance of the Building Bridges Initiative, which was lost at the courts.

“BBI was going to solve these equations. That is why Raila is still speaking of BBI. If Kalonzo can buy that, then that would largely solve that equation. If the PM, DPM post would be assured,” the don said.

“That is also why Musalia is rebelling. He is not seeing what is in there for him. He is seeing a loss-loss scenario. Raila cannot run away from Mt Kenya,” he added.

Prof Naituli, in reinforcing the Mt Kenya question, said, “If Raila were to take Martha as a running mate, that would be a completely total game-changer.”

By The Star