UHURU’S TOUGH GAMEPLAN HEADING 2022

A political reunion between Deputy President William Ruto and ODM boss Raila Odinga could thwart President Uhuru Kenyatta’s succession plans.

Speculation is rife the former Pentagon stalwarts-turned-foes could be warming up to each other after they found themselves both pushed aside in the Uhuru succession intrigues.

The duo find themselves on the same side after reports emerged alleging the President or his close associates are pushing for a successor who is neither Ruto nor Raila.

DP Ruto triggered the speculation last week after he expressed his openness to working with the former Prime Minister ahead of next year’s general election. 

On the other hand, Raila’s ODM was cautious but sending out feelers.It  appeared to firm up the assertion when it announced plans to form a ‘tsunami’ alliance after the party was left out of the One Kenya Alliance, said to be enjoying the President’s blessings.

If the two were to come together, pundits say  they will have to make sacrifices. Either Ruto steps down for Raila to run for President  in 2022, then hands over power to him (Ruto) in 2027.

Or Raila plays the kingmaker role and signs a pact for a 50-50 share of  government slots where the ODM boss will front his people. The argument is that Ruto cannot run for Deputy President again and the chances of Raila playing second fiddle to him are very minimal.

“Both of them are hardliners. It will not be easy for them to agree but it that were to happen, then they will have to make major concessions, sacrifices, otherwise, Uhuru will have his way,” analyst Elias Mutuma said.

Uhuru is said to be keen to pick his successor from the alliance that brings together Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, ANC’s Musalia Mudavadi, Ford Kenya boss Moses Wetang’.ula and Kanu chairman Senator Gideon Moi.

He has humiliated and bitterly fallen out with Ruto, who was initially seen as his heir apparent. The DP’s allies say he was betrayed.

The President has also evidently abandoned his handshake partner Raila as it had been expected the handshake would culminate in an endorsement. 

Raila’s elder brother in August last year said that since ODM has what he called ‘the system’, State House was a sure bet.

“We are now with Uhuru Kenyatta who is holding ‘the system’. So with ‘the system’, plus our votes, which are always more than the others, what else [is there]?” Oburu asked. 

Speaking at the same event, Alengo Usonga MP Samuel Atandi of ODM said, “We are going to power in 2022 and the route is through President Uhuru Kenyatta.” 

It was widely expected the President could back Raila to end political hatred emanating from post-Independence period during the days of their fathers, Jomo Kenyatta and Oginga Odinga, who were president and vice president, respectively.

But things are fast changing. 

Recently, Raila’s confidant, Siaya Senator James Orengo, alleged a plot by some civil servants in the President’s circles to sabotage Raila and stop him from ascending to the presidency next year.

“I want to warn some top civil servants paid by taxpayers’ money to stop meddling in the country’s political leadership,” Orengo said early last month, sparking a storm in the handshake camp.

Political pundits say the quartet in the One Kenya Alliance does not have political clout and might to counter Raila and Ruto’s ‘tsunami.’

This, they argue, would complicate or even thwart Uhuru’s plans to have a hand in his successor in the 2022 General Election.

“The four are minor parties nationally, and their leaders are not crowd pullers like Ruto and Raila,” Prof Macharia Munene, who teaches at USIU, said.

Besides pulling crowds, Prof Munene said  Ruto and Raila, are combative and persuasive — attributes that have earned them a near-fanatical following in most regions.

Herman Manyora, a lecturer at the University of Nairobi said Uhuru’s plans to shape his succession would come to a halt if the DP and the former Prime Minister join forces. 

“If the two were to work together, it will bring Uhuru’s succession plans to an end because nobody can contest against the combined forces of Raila and Ruto,” Manyora reckoned.

He added, “Here, we shall have two people terribly betrayed and they will not give him a chance, if they get power. Uhuru’s legacy will disappear.”

Political observers Elias Mutuma and Mark Bichachi said the President would have no options left if Raila and Ruto were to form an alliance.

“If that happens, of course, it means other alliances, the One Kenya Alliance, would be dead on arrival. They would stand no chance,” Mutuma said.

Bichachi said, “If somehow, by some very funny miracle the two join forces, then there is no force left in Kenya that can beat them.”

By The Star