Category: Economy&Finance

Safaricom PLC is expected to report a 28.9% increase in shareholder-attributable profit for the first half of its 2027 financial year, with analysts projecting earnings of KSh55.16 billion as the company’s Ethiopian operation moves closer to operating breakeven. The Safaricom HY2027 results, scheduled for announcement on Thursday, November 5, will come against expectations of double-digit growth in service revenue and a stronger improvement in operating profitability.

Weighted analyst consensus puts group service revenue at KSh222.53 billion for the six months, representing an 11.3% increase from KSh199.87 billion in the corresponding period of the previous financial year. EBITDA is projected to rise 19.8% to KSh121.36 billion, while earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from KSh1.07 to KSh1.38.

Four analysts contributing to the forecasts expect shareholder-attributable profit to reach between KSh52 billion and KSh57.2 billion. Gichuki Kahome of Wealth Atlas projects KSh54.90 billion, while Brian Nzioki of Castright Solutions estimates earnings within a KSh52 billion to KSh56 billion range. Robert Ochieng, ACIFA, of Abojani expects KSh55.60 billion, while independent analyst Bildad Joash Barasa has the highest individual estimate at KSh57.20 billion.

The weighted consensus of KSh55.16 billion represents an additional KSh12.38 billion in shareholder earnings compared with the KSh42.78 billion recorded in HY2026. The projected improvement comes alongside expectations of stronger operating earnings, with reported group EBIT forecast to reach KSh86.17 billion from KSh65.21 billion a year earlier. Profit before tax is projected at KSh75.5 billion, compared with KSh55.24 billion in HY2026.

Safaricom Ethiopia is expected to make a substantial contribution to the group’s improved financial performance, with analysts forecasting its EBITDA loss to narrow to KSh1 billion from KSh12.5 billion in HY2026. That represents an improvement of KSh11.5 billion, or approximately 92%, as the operation continues to build its customer base and generate more revenue from telecommunications services.

The forecast builds on the subscriber and revenue growth documented in Safaricom Ethiopia’s earlier operating performance. By June 2026, the business had surpassed 15 million 90-day active subscribers, supported by more than 3,500 network sites covering approximately 60% of Ethiopia’s population. Its FY2026 service revenue reached KSh14.08 billion, with data contributing KSh9.56 billion compared with KSh3.01 billion from voice services.

The difference between the two revenue streams illustrates the importance of mobile data to the Ethiopian operation. Safaricom Ethiopia’s data business has become its principal service revenue contributor as the company expands network coverage and attracts more customers to its telecommunications services.

For HY2027, analysts project Ethiopia service revenue of KSh10.2 billion, up from KSh6.19 billion in the corresponding period. The projected EBITDA loss of KSh1 billion would also bring the operation closer to the EBITDA breakeven target for the financial year ending March 2027.

The improvement is particularly important given the financial burden Ethiopia has placed on the group since its commercial launch. The operation recorded an EBITDA loss of KSh27.9 billion in HY2025 before narrowing it to KSh12.5 billion in HY2026. Its projected HY2027 performance would mark a further substantial reduction in the cost of building and operating the telecommunications business.

However, the Ethiopian operation is still expected to record negative earnings before interest and tax. Analysts project reported EBIT excluding IAS 29 adjustments at a loss of KSh7 billion, compared with an expected EBITDA loss of KSh1 billion. The distinction reflects the additional impact of depreciation and amortisation on a business that has invested heavily in establishing its network infrastructure.

While Ethiopia accounts for a substantial part of the expected improvement in group profitability, Safaricom’s Kenyan business continues to provide the foundation for its revenue generation. M-PESA remains central to that operation, with its payments infrastructure supporting consumer transactions, merchant payments, digital lending and investment products.

Safaricom’s FY2026 operating figures showed that M-PESA processed 46.4 billion transactions worth KSh41.68 trillion during the financial year ended March 2026. Transaction volumes increased by 25.1%, while the merchant network expanded to 3.13 million businesses. The company also increased M-PESA’s processing capacity from 4,500 to 6,000 transactions per second to accommodate growing activity across the platform.

The expansion of M-PESA’s services also extends into wealth management. By March 2026, the platform’s wealth management business had 2.2 million active customers and KSh21.1 billion in assets under management. Safaricom has added investment products including Ziidi MMF, Ziidi Trader and Ziidi Shari’ah to its financial services portfolio, giving customers additional ways to access investment opportunities through M-PESA.

Chief Executive Officer Peter Ndegwa has outlined the company’s ambitions to expand beyond traditional telecommunications, with financial services, merchant solutions and artificial intelligence forming part of its broader growth strategy. The expansion builds on M-PESA’s existing customer and merchant network, which provides Safaricom with an established platform for introducing additional services.

Digital lending is another component of the financial services business. Safaricom’s FY2026 reporting showed that the number of customers eligible for Fuliza borrowing had risen to 18.1 million from seven million, while M-PESA consumer credit customers increased to 17.7 million from 7.9 million. The company has also identified tighter exposure controls and improved behavioural scoring among its priorities for managing digital lending.

These developments provide context for Safaricom’s projected service revenue growth, although the financial results will offer the more direct measure of how its telecommunications and financial services businesses are contributing to earnings.

The forecasts underline the financial importance of Safaricom’s established Kenyan operation as the group continues to invest in Ethiopia. Analysts expect Kenya EBIT to reach KSh97 billion in HY2027, compared with an estimated Ethiopia EBIT loss of KSh7 billion excluding IAS 29 adjustments.

The two figures produce an estimated KSh90 billion in combined operating earnings, matching the consensus forecast for group EBIT excluding IAS 29. Reported group EBIT is projected at KSh86.17 billion after the relevant accounting adjustments.

Kenya’s operating contribution is supported by its established telecommunications infrastructure and M-PESA ecosystem. Mobile data, voice, mobile money, merchant services and enterprise connectivity provide multiple sources of revenue, while the company continues investing in network capacity to accommodate rising demand.

Ndegwa has previously put Safaricom’s annual Kenyan infrastructure investment at approximately US$400 million to US$500 million, with around half directed towards the network. He also reported annual data volume growth of approximately 30%, highlighting the investment requirements associated with maintaining capacity as customers consume more mobile data.

The expansion of the merchant network also creates opportunities for Safaricom to provide services beyond payment processing. The Kenya Revenue Authority has discussed an arrangement with Safaricom to generate electronic tax invoices for businesses receiving payments through M-PESA tills and paybills, extending the platform’s potential role in merchant operations and business administration.

These investments and service developments form part of the company’s wider effort to strengthen its position in Kenya while building another telecommunications and financial services business in Ethiopia.

The HY2027 forecasts come after a decade of substantial growth in Safaricom’s financial performance. Half-year service revenue increased from KSh98.01 billion in HY2017 to KSh199.87 billion in HY2026, representing growth of approximately 104%.

EBITDA followed a similar trajectory, rising from KSh50.81 billion to KSh101.29 billion over the same period, an increase of approximately 99.3%. The figures illustrate how Safaricom has expanded its revenue base and operating earnings while developing M-PESA into a major financial services platform and entering the Ethiopian telecommunications market.

The latest forecasts point to further expansion, with service revenue expected to reach KSh222.53 billion and EBITDA projected at KSh121.36 billion. The anticipated 19.8% EBITDA growth compared with 11.3% service revenue growth suggests an improvement in operating margins as the group converts a larger proportion of its revenue into operating earnings.

For investors, the relationship between revenue growth and profitability will be an important measure of Safaricom’s financial performance. The Ethiopian operation’s narrowing losses could support that improvement, while the Kenyan business remains responsible for the larger share of group operating earnings.

Safaricom’s HY2027 announcement will provide an opportunity to assess the group’s performance against the analysts’ forecasts, particularly its ability to translate revenue growth into higher earnings. The KSh222.53 billion service revenue estimate and KSh121.36 billion EBITDA projection provide two important benchmarks for evaluating the group’s operating performance.

Ethiopia’s financial performance will also attract attention, with the projected KSh1 billion EBITDA loss offering a measure of progress towards the company’s breakeven ambitions. Its service revenue growth will help establish whether the improving operating performance is being supported by a larger telecommunications business.

M-PESA’s contribution will remain another important consideration as Safaricom expands its payments, merchant and investment services. The company’s ability to grow these businesses alongside its traditional telecommunications operations will shape its earnings performance and future revenue opportunities.

The four analysts expect shareholder-attributable profit to reach KSh55.16 billion, with EPS of KSh1.38 for the six months. Their forecasts point to another period of strong earnings growth for Safaricom, supported by its established Kenyan business and a substantial reduction in the losses associated with its Ethiopian expansion.

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