MUSALIA’S PLAN THAT WILL DESTROY ONE KENYA ALLIANCE

Musalia Mudavadi has disclosed that One Kenya Alliance is embarking on an ambitious plan to bring on board ODM Leader Raila Odinga. The two are close friends having worked closely in 2007 and 2017 general elections.

While the plan seems good on paper, it’s a remedy for catastrophy. The idea of bringing Raila to the coalition seeks to form a formidable force to challenge Ruto. The plan will most likely fail and destroy One Kenya Alliance because of the following reasons:

1. It has failed before

The names might be different but the players remain unchanged. In 2017, Musalia was in NASA Coalition that comprised of Kalonzo Musyoka, Raila Odinga and Moses Wetangula. The only difference between then and now is addition of Gideon Moi who does not bring significant votes.

2. Sharing of positions

What has made Ruto to maintain his influence is that everyone who joins his team knows Ruto is going for the top seat. This reduces cases of politicians saying they were betrayed and defecting.

If Raila joins One Kenya Alliance, it will add a fifth member who wants to go for the top seat. It might play out like in 2007 when Raila was forced to part ways with Kalonzo because both wanted to vie for presidency. Or in 2013 when Musalia left CORD because he wanted to be nominated as flag bearer.

3. Regional Balance

Apart from Kalonzo Musyoka, the other principals seem to largely come from one region. Western will have 3 representatives and Nyanza and Rift Valley a representative each.

Mt Kenya which is the largest voting block will be unrepresented. Other regions to be neglected will be coastal region and north eastern region. Unless they add more members, the outfit does not have a national outlook.

4. Uhuru factor

Uhuru has not come out and endorsed a specific candidate. Everyone is clamoring for his blessings. There is no reason to cancel completely the possibility of Uhuru working with Ruto.

Uhuru has worked for the longest with William Ruto than any other politician in Kenya. Uhuru worked with Ruto in 2002 and were part of opposition in forthcoming years. In 2013 they worked together winning the presidency. They have worked together again in 2017.

If Raila joined One Kenya Alliance and Uhuru decided to support Ruto, it will be familiar scenes. They have competed against each other twice and every time Uhuru and Ruto have won.