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Chief Economic Adviser David Ndii has dismissed concerns about a milk shortage in Kenya, arguing that increased consumption is contributing to stockouts in supermarkets despite rising production.

Ndii said the country was producing more milk than it did when the current administration took office, but changing consumption patterns were putting pressure on supplies available on supermarket shelves.

Speaking during the 2026 NCBA Economic Forum in Nairobi on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, Ndii pointed to the growing number of workers at affordable housing construction sites as an example of how demand for milk was increasing.

He explained that contractors at the sites provide workers with milk alongside other supplies, creating a growing market that consumers and analysts might not immediately associate with the country’s overall milk consumption.

“Then the question becomes who’s consuming this milk? Certainly probably not the people in this room who haven’t increased their consumption a lot. But it means that there are people who aren’t consuming a lot of milk, who are now consuming a lot of milk,” Ndii said.

“And I can tell you where you can find them. If you go to any of our construction sites where we are doing affordable housing, where there are a couple of hundred thousand people working every day or in the construction site, you will find crates of milk sitting there.”

Ndii added that providing milk to construction workers had become part of the supplies offered to employees at some of the sites.

“Because that’s one of the things that construction workers provide to the workers on site as well as other things,” he said.

To support his argument, Ndii cited data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), saying annual milk production had increased by 20 per cent since the current administration took office.

He put the country’s production at approximately 5.6 billion litres, arguing that the additional output alone was greater than the annual milk production of 90 per cent of African countries.

“The increase is actually more milk than 90 per cent of the countries in Africa produce, just the increase. It’s more milk than most of the countries in Africa actually produce, more dairy milk,” he stated.

The economist also highlighted growth in milk processing, saying the volume of milk received by processors had increased by 34 per cent.

According to Ndii, processors were receiving approximately 500 million litres annually in 2022 before the figure reached one billion litres last year.

He noted that intake during the first eight months of 2026 had remained close to the corresponding period in 2025, despite concerns about the effects of drought on supply.

Ndii argued that the combination of increased production and processor intake pointed to stronger demand as an explanation for the stockouts.

“So if there is no reduction in supply and there’s actually a very sharp increase in both production and the intake by processors, what can explain the stockouts on the shelf? What explains the stockouts on the shelves? The only thing left to explain that stockout on the shelves is demand,” he said.

Beyond supermarket supplies, Ndii highlighted the financial importance of the dairy sector, estimating that Kenya’s annual milk production was worth nearly Ksh400 billion at current farm-gate prices.

He also pointed to the rising value of quality dairy cattle, saying good dairy heifers were selling for approximately Ksh300,000 to Ksh350,000.

The economist said the high prices reflected growing demand for productive dairy animals, adding that Kenya was importing cattle from countries including South Africa and the Netherlands while also exporting dairy animals to other African markets.

He further argued that some of the economic activity taking place in the dairy sector was not adequately reflected in official economic statistics.

Ndii said rapid structural changes in the economy could leave statistical sampling methods outdated, making it difficult for official figures to capture emerging activities.

He said he had discussed the issue with KNBS, arguing that the bureau could be relying on information from established parts of the economy while missing developments taking place in newer or rapidly expanding sectors.