The most dangerous man in the 2027 race is not on the ballot. In my opinion it is former President Uhuru Kenyatta, and President William Ruto seems to agree.
He has called him a rebel leader, accused him of sponsoring the opposition, and asked in Siaya how Uhuru can beat him now after failing to do so while in office. People do not spend that much energy on someone they consider harmless.
Uhuru has moved carefully. He handed the formal leadership of Jubilee to Fred Matiang'i but stayed on as a senior adviser, so he keeps a voice without carrying the title.
He has also chaired Azimio meetings on rebranding the coalition and urged the opposition to walk together and field one candidate. Reports say the strategy mirrors the 2002 Narc arrangement that ended four decades of Kanu rule.
His real weapon is Mt. Kenya. Ruto reportedly won about 87 percent of the region in 2022, which was nearly half of his national tally, and IEBC projections put the region at more than seven million voters next year.
Analysts have long argued that Uhuru can sway the region's business elite, and the family's resources are widely expected to matter in a long campaign. Whoever he leans toward can change the arithmetic.
What makes this worse for Ruto is the thaw between Uhuru and Rigathi Gachagua. In April Uhuru hinted at an alliance with Gachagua's faction, and in May Gachagua said the opposition could turn to him if needed.
Their relaxed moment at a burial this week showed how far that relationship has come. The same Mt. Kenya vote that carried Ruto in 2022 is now being courted by two men who once stood on opposite sides.
Then there was his line on Wednesday that people in the village have made up their minds. It was vague, but vague works in politics because every voter fills in the blank. Ruto's reply about sober opinions shows it landed.
His critics say he could not deliver Raila Odinga in 2022 and that his influence is overstated. That may be true, and he has denied sponsoring anyone.
Still, a man who knows how the state works, who keeps his networks and who is trying to hold a fractured opposition together is a bigger threat than any rally crowd.
Source: Writer's Opinion
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