Kileleshwa MCA Robert Alai says President William Ruto is now squaring off against two figures he once worked with: former President Uhuru Kenyatta and his ex-deputy, Rigathi Gachagua.
"Former President Uhuru Kenyatta has the financial resources and social networks to fundraise, while Rigathi Gachagua is a strong mobilizer. He could be the glue holding the Opposition together," Alai said.
He added: "President Ruto now finds himself facing two political figures that he is trying to fight: his former deputy, Gachagua, and his former boss, Uhuru. Uhuru throwing his dice around is a serious threat to Ruto."
Alai's assessment comes amid a heated row. In August, Ruto accused Uhuru of being the "chief financier" and "sponsor" of the opposition, allegations the former president has rejected.
Gachagua has dismissed the claim, saying he has never received a single shilling from Uhuru and that the opposition does not need his money to send Ruto home.
He told Ruto to leave Uhuru alone, insisting the retired president "will not be on the ballot" and that he himself is Ruto's main competitor.
Gachagua has suggested Uhuru could serve as an elder and mediator should disagreements within the opposition prove difficult to resolve.
The leaders' rapprochement was on show in April, when Uhuru attended the burial of former Kirinyaga Senator Daniel Karaba alongside Gachagua, Kalonzo Musyoka, Fred Matiang'i, Martha Karua and Eugene Wamalwa, and called for opposition unity.
One analysis published in August argued that Uhuru retains a functioning party machine in Jubilee and residual command of a slice of the Mt Kenya vote.
None of the opposition principals has yet been anointed the 2027 flagbearer, and the analysis suggested that ambiguity could be Uhuru's leverage.
Alai, an ODM member, is among the strongest defenders of his party's cooperation with Ruto, so his assessment comes from outside the opposition camp.
Whether Uhuru's dice land in the opposition's favour remains to be seen, but the political temperature is clearly rising as the 2027 campaigns intensify further.
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