Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has registered a stronger preference than former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua among supporters of Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), according to a new TIFA Research survey examining potential winners of the 2027 presidential election.
The November 12 report puts Sifuna at 34 per cent against Gachagua’s 25 per cent among DCP supporters when respondents were asked who they would prefer to win the next presidential election.
The finding adds an interesting dimension to the emerging political relationship between the two leaders, who have moved from opposing political camps to exploring cooperation in the opposition’s efforts to challenge President William Ruto in 2027.
However, the figures should not be interpreted as proof that Sifuna is more popular than Gachagua across the entire Mt Kenya region. The 34 per cent and 25 per cent figures relate specifically to DCP supporters, not all voters in the region.
The survey identifies President Ruto and Sifuna as joint frontrunners nationally. Among supporters of the Linda Mwananchi Movement, Sifuna commands 90 per cent preference, while Ruto receives 85 per cent among UDA supporters.
TIFA also notes that Sifuna is “more popular than Gachagua among DCP supporters (34% vs. 25%).” The finding comes as the opposition grapples with the question of who should lead a possible joint presidential ticket.
Gachagua’s Mt Kenya test
The poll comes against the backdrop of Gachagua’s repeated insistence that Mt Kenya will not automatically support a presidential candidate without first examining what the region stands to gain.
Speaking during the Ngemi cia Watho Cultural Festival in Thika on November 7, Gachagua told Sifuna that the region had learnt lessons from its decision to support Ruto in the 2022 election.
“We gave Kasongo our votes without thinking or even talking. We simply handed them over. This time, before getting the votes of the mountain, there must be discussions,” Gachagua said, according to People Daily.
He further warned against rushing the region into endorsing a candidate, saying: “Never again shall we just give our votes to anybody just like that? We have to look and study, interrogate, consult, review and make an informed decision.”
Gachagua’s remarks underline the conditions he wants potential political partners to address before seeking Mt Kenya’s backing. He has cited honesty, integrity, respect for commitments and the ability to keep promises as considerations in future political negotiations.
The TIFA report offers another relevant measure of Gachagua’s regional standing. It found that 69 per cent of Kikuyu respondents identified a community leader named Gachagua. That finding measures recognition of a community leader, however, rather than preference for a presidential candidate.
Wamunyoro political signal
The relationship between the two politicians has taken a notable turn since their October 20 meeting at Gachagua’s Wamunyoro residence in Nyeri County.
Gachagua welcomed Sifuna and other Linda Mwananchi leaders, describing them as “my cousins from Linda Mwananchi” and adding: “When we come together great things must happen.”
The meeting brought together figures from different political backgrounds, including Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino. It was widely interpreted as a signal of possible cooperation ahead of the 2027 election.
Gachagua had also indicated during his United States tour that he was prepared to deputise Sifuna if the Nairobi senator emerged as the opposition’s preferred presidential candidate.
“I can deputise Sifuna,” he said, in remarks reported by the Nation, while discussing possible opposition ticket arrangements.
Sifuna, for his part, has defended the engagement, arguing that political cooperation should not be restricted by regional or ethnic boundaries.
“Yesterday, some people saw us somewhere with someone, and they now want to tell us that there is a region in this country where none of us is supposed to associate with,” he said after the meeting.
Ticket talks ahead
The TIFA findings place the Sifuna-Gachagua relationship within a wider opposition succession debate. While the two leaders have publicly signalled willingness to work together, the question of who should carry the presidential ticket remains unresolved.
The report cautions that opposition supporters are divided over when a joint presidential candidate should be named, noting that an early choice could help coordinate mobilisation but could also expose the selected candidate to attacks from the incumbent camp.
It also observes that the process of selecting a flag-bearer, and whether those left out accept the outcome, could be as important as the identity of the candidate.
For Gachagua, the challenge is to negotiate an arrangement that addresses Mt Kenya’s demands while maintaining a broader opposition coalition. For Sifuna, the DCP figures offer evidence of support among a section of Gachagua’s party base, but they do not settle the question of regional backing.
The survey therefore captures a political moment in which cooperation is being discussed publicly, even as the competing ambitions and expectations surrounding the 2027 presidential ticket remain unresolved.
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