The poll was conducted between October 26 and November 5, 2026, using face-to-face interviews in households involving a nationally representative sample of 2,036 respondents drawn from nine regions: Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift and Western. Most interviews were conducted in Kiswahili, while others were carried out in English.The survey carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.16 percentage points, although the margin is higher when analysing smaller respondent groups.
Sifuna has recorded a remarkable increase in his presidential ratings, moving from zero per cent in August 2022, September 2025 and November 2025 to 10 per cent in May 2026. His support subsequently climbed to 15 per cent in June before reaching 31 per cent in November.
Ruto’s popularity has followed a more gradual upward trajectory. He garnered 16 per cent in September 2025 and 19 per cent in November of the same year. His rating increased to 24 per cent in both May and June 2026 before rising to 31 per cent in the latest findings.Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, who had previously occupied the leading position in presidential preference rankings, registered the biggest decline among the major contenders.
His support dropped from 32 per cent in August 2022 to 21 per cent in September 2025 and 18 per cent in November that year. The figure further declined to 14 per cent in both May and June 2026 before falling to just five per cent in November.
Former Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka has similarly experienced a decline in his ratings after attaining a high of 25 per cent in November 2025. His support decreased to 19 per cent in May 2026, 13 per cent in June and nine per cent in the latest survey.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has also witnessed fluctuations in his popularity. After reaching nine per cent in May 2026, his rating stood at seven per cent in June and dropped to four per cent in November. He had previously recorded two per cent in August 2022, six per cent in September 2025 and three per cent in November 2025.
Meanwhile, support for other potential presidential candidates has fallen considerably, declining from a high of 14 per cent in September 2025 to just one per cent in the latest survey.The proportion of undecided voters stood at 15 per cent in November, representing a decline from 20 per cent recorded in June. Respondents who declined to state their preferences accounted for four per cent, maintaining a relatively small and stable share.
Despite the latest rankings, the figures reflect voters' declared preferences at the time the research was conducted rather than determining who will eventually win the 2027 presidential election. Political realignments, campaign strategies, policy agendas, official candidature announcements and other developments could significantly influence voter choices before the polls.
Sifuna's emergence at the top is particularly notable given that he had not registered measurable support in the earlier survey periods. His latest 31 per cent rating places him above established presidential contenders, including Matiang’i, Kalonzo and Gachagua.
For Ruto, the latest findings indicate an improvement from the 24 per cent support he recorded in June 2026, with his rating rising to 31 per cent in November.Overall, the survey offers a glimpse into the changing political landscape ahead of the 2027 General Election, showing Ruto and Sifuna sharing the leading position while other presidential hopefuls trail considerably behind.
Leave a Reply