President William Ruto and his economic adviser David Ndii are facing questions over their explanation for Kenya’s milk shortages, after linking rising demand to newly employed Kenyans, including workers on affordable housing projects.
Their argument is that more people earning wages can afford milk, pushing consumption higher. But official figures reveal another side of the story: although Kenya’s annual milk production increased in 2025, the volume reaching formal processors declined for three consecutive months between May and August 2026.
The figures raise a crucial question: are newly employed workers driving supermarket stockouts, or are problems in milk production and distribution also responsible?
On Wednesday, November 4, 2026, Ruto defended Ndii’s explanation, citing increased employment and the purchasing power of workers.
“There are too many people now who can afford some tea and some milk because we have close to another two million people who are not working. Now they are working. 1.1 million of them are in the affordable housing space,” Ruto said.
The President argued that increased employment was changing consumption patterns as more Kenyans gained the ability to buy basic commodities.
The explanation is economically plausible. However, the number of people employed does not, by itself, establish how much additional milk they consume or how much they contribute to supermarket shortages.
Speaking at the NCBA Economic Forum in Nairobi on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, Ndii questioned whether reduced national supply was responsible for the stockouts.
“If there is no reduction in supply, and there is actually a very sharp increase in both production and the intake by processors, what can explain the stock-outs on the shelves?” Ndii asked.
He pointed to affordable housing construction sites as an example of rising consumption.
“If you go to any of our construction sites, where we are doing affordable housing, where there are a couple of hundred thousand people working every day, you will find crates of milk sitting there,” he said.
But the examples do not quantify the workers’ total consumption. No worker-specific breakdown cited in these reports establishes the volume of milk consumed at housing sites or its share of national demand.
The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) reported that annual milk production increased from 5.3348 billion litres in 2024 to 5.5211 billion litres in 2025, a rise of 3.5 per cent.
However, KNBS’s Leading Economic Indicators, August 2026 report shows formal-sector milk intake fell from 88.89 million litres in May to 84.44 million in June, 81.32 million in July and 77.13 million in August.
That is a decline of approximately 13.2 per cent between May and August. Intake also fell by 5.1 per cent between July and August alone.
The data does not prove that total national milk production declined by the same amount. It measures milk entering formal processing channels, not all milk produced or sold through informal markets.
Nevertheless, it demonstrates why higher annual production does not automatically guarantee steady supplies of packaged milk in supermarkets.
Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe has identified drought, inadequate animal feed and competition from brokers as factors affecting formal milk deliveries.
“There is a shortage of animal feed in areas where cows normally graze on green pasture. A well-fed cow is not the same as one that isn’t, and therefore there is a reduction in the quantity of milk,” Kagwe said.
Kagwe revealed brokers offering farmers better prices were also diverting milk away from processing companies, leaving supermarkets short of supplies even where milk remained available through informal channels.
Partly plausible, but not proven. Ruto and Ndii offer a credible explanation for how rising employment could increase milk demand.
However, the available data does not establish that affordable housing workers are a major cause of supermarket stockouts. KNBS figures and the government’s own statement point to supply-chain pressures that must also be considered.
The key unanswered question is how much milk the new workforce consumes compared with the volume no longer reaching formal processors. Without that evidence, attributing the shortage primarily to housing workers goes beyond what the published figures establish.
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