A nationwide survey released by TIFA Research on Thursday, November 12, 2026, shows that Linda Mwananchi commands 17 per cent support, placing it behind President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), which leads with 25 per cent.
ODM, which previously enjoyed 20 per cent support in TIFA’s June survey, has dropped to 10 per cent, leaving it in third position.
According to TIFA, Linda Mwananchi has gained considerable support from voters who previously identified with ODM, describing its emergence as an unprecedented development in Kenya’s multiparty political landscape.
The survey also reveals the geographical distribution of support for the two political formations. Linda Mwananchi enjoys 40 per cent backing in Western Kenya, 26 per cent in Nairobi, 18 per cent in Nyanza and 16 per cent at the Coast.
ODM, on the other hand, maintains 33 per cent support in Nyanza, while recording 14 per cent at the Coast, 10 per cent in Western Kenya and nine per cent in Nairobi.
The findings come amid an escalating political dispute between Sifuna’s faction and the ODM leadership under Oburu Oginga.
The disagreements emerged following differences over ODM’s cooperation with Ruto’s administration and the direction the party should take ahead of the 2027 General Election.
An earlier TIFA survey conducted in June showed that 74 per cent of ODM supporters identified with the Linda Mwananchi faction associated with Sifuna, Siaya Governor James Orengo and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino. The rival Linda Ground faction attracted 20 per cent.
Linda Mwananchi has since embarked on establishing its national leadership structures, with Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya proposed to lead its presidential campaign.
The party is scheduled to hold its National Delegates Convention on Friday, November 13, where proposed leadership changes and its transition will be considered.
However, the planned meeting faces a legal challenge over questions surrounding the selection of delegates and the appointment of officials.
TIFA cautioned that the popularity figures do not automatically translate into election victories, noting that Linda Mwananchi still faces the challenge of building a nationwide political network capable of supporting its candidates in the 2027 elections.
https://peopledaily.digital/inside-politics/sifunas-linda-mwananchi-overtakes-odm-to-become-kenyas-second-most-popular-party-tifa
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