According to a nationwide survey released by TIFA Research on Thursday, November 12, 2026, UDA commands 25 per cent support, followed by the Linda Mwananchi Movement associated with Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna at 17 per cent.
The findings indicate changing political loyalties ahead of the August 2027 General Election, with the emergence of Linda Mwananchi coinciding with a decline in ODM's popularity.
TIFA reported that UDA's support had increased from 17 per cent in June to 25 per cent in November, restoring its position at the top of the party popularity survey.
The Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), associated with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, follows with nine per cent, while Wiper Patriotic Front has five per cent. Jubilee Party records four per cent.
Regionally, UDA enjoys considerable support in Northern Kenya at 60 per cent and Central Rift at 56 per cent. Its support stands at 24 per cent in Coast, 22 per cent in Western and 20 per cent in both Lower Eastern and South Rift.
However, the party records eight per cent in Nairobi and 10 per cent in the Mt Kenya region.
ODM's declining numbers come amid disagreements within the party over its relationship with Ruto's administration and the direction it should take following the death of longtime party leader Raila Odinga.
TIFA estimates that ODM has lost half of its previous popularity, with Linda Mwananchi attracting a considerable section of its traditional support.
In Nairobi, Linda Mwananchi records 26 per cent compared with ODM's nine per cent. In Western Kenya, the movement commands 40 per cent, while ODM stands at 10 per cent.
The survey also examined the presidential race, placing Ruto and Sifuna at 31 per cent each, suggesting that party popularity and individual presidential support are producing different results.
The findings come as Linda Mwananchi prepares for its National Delegates Conference scheduled for November 13, amid a legal challenge involving its proposed party rebranding.
TIFA conducted the survey between October 26 and November 5, interviewing 2,036 randomly selected adults across all 47 counties through face-to-face interviews.
https://peopledaily.digital/inside-politics/uda-emerges-as-kenyas-most-popular-party-as-odm-falls-to-third-tifa
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