The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority has explained that the delay is linked to the interaction between different climate conditions, despite earlier predictions pointing to an almost certain El Niño event.
Speaking during an interview on Spice FM on Wednesday, November 11, Eastern Region Meteorological Services Deputy Director Richard Muita clarified that El Niño does not automatically translate into heavy rainfall.
He explained that the phenomenon, which originates from temperature changes in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, influences global weather patterns but requires other favourable conditions to produce substantial rainfall in Kenya.
According to Muita, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is another critical factor in determining the amount of rainfall received in East Africa.
He noted that when El Niño coincides with favourable Indian Ocean temperatures, Kenya is more likely to experience above-average rainfall. However, unfavourable conditions in the Indian Ocean can weaken the expected impact.
Muita cited 2015 as an example, when Kenya experienced strong El Niño conditions but failed to receive the anticipated heavy rainfall because Indian Ocean temperatures were not favourable.
He said the country could be experiencing a similar situation, explaining why some regions have yet to record the expected downpours.
The clarification comes amid growing questions from Kenyans, particularly Nairobi residents, who have been waiting for the heavy rains previously anticipated in seasonal forecasts.
However, the situation varies across the country. Parts of western Kenya, including Kisumu, have already experienced substantial rainfall, resulting in flooding and destruction of property.
Despite the uneven rainfall patterns, Kenya Met has cautioned against concluding that the anticipated rains will not materialise.
The authority has urged the government and members of the public to maintain preparations for possible heavy rainfall and continue monitoring official weather updates as the season progresses.
https://www.kenyans.co.ke/news/129300-kenya-met-explains-why-kenya-has-not-received-expected-el-nino-rains
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