President William Ruto's United Democratic Alliance has retained the top spot among Kenya's political parties, even as Edwin Sifuna's fledgling Linda Mwananchi Movement has pushed past the Orange Democratic Movement in the same survey, according to The Star and a fresh poll from Tifa Research.
The latest Tifa findings, published on Thursday, have placed UDA at 25 per cent, which has kept it ahead of every rival.
The Linda Mwananchi Movement (LMM), has followed at 17 per cent, a notable showing for an outfit that has only just launched. ODM has settled in third place with 10 per cent.
For ODM, the numbers have made uncomfortable reading. The party has long counted itself among the country's biggest political machines, yet it has now slipped behind a movement that has barely begun to organize.
The shift has come as Sifuna, the Nairobi senator, has steadily built a following among voters who have grown weary of the broad-based arrangement between ODM and the government.
Earlier Tifa surveys have shown that most ODM supporters have lined up behind his faction rather than the rival camp led by party leader Oburu Odinga.
UDA, for its part, has held onto its lead, although the figure has hardly given the ruling party room to relax.
Pollsters have repeatedly noted that Kenyan voters have grown restless with the established parties, and the arrival of LMM has added another competitor to a crowded field.
Other surveys have not always told the same story; one published last month has put the movement ahead of UDA, a reminder that results have varied with methodology and timing.
With the 2027 General Election drawing closer, politicians have begun paying closer attention to every new number.
Opposition leaders have continued to talk about a joint ticket, and Sifuna has been among the loudest voices pushing for it.
Whether such a pact has become realistic remains unclear, yet the latest poll has already given his camp a morale boost and has handed the president's party a talking point.
Opinion polls have remained only a snapshot, and every camp has treated them accordingly.
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