President William Ruto may have a strong command in some regions, but he could soon find himself facing the same challenge that haunted Raila Odinga for years, holding together different voting blocs that want different things, at the same time.
Raila Odinga worked with friends and foes. He treated his voting blocs with respect, and they paid him back. That was his secret, and also his burden. He had to keep Nyanza, Western, Coast, Nairobi, Eastern and parts of Rift Valley in one basket, even when their interests clashed.
One bloc wanted a running mate slot, another wanted development, another wanted respect, another wanted a share of power. If one felt betrayed, the whole basket shook.
Ruto is now walking into that same trap.On paper, Ruto looks strong. He still commands a huge following in Rift Valley, parts of Central, and parts of Eastern. He has governors, MPs, and a government machinery behind him.
But that is where the challenge begins. Just like Raila, Ruto is now trying to please everyone, and in doing so, he risks pleasing no one.
In Nyanza, the Linda Ground team cannot fill a rally ground. In Kisumu, its recent rally fell flat while the rival Linda Mwananchi faction led by Edwin Sifuna, James Orengo, Babu Owino and others pulled huge, organic crowds.
The message from Kisumu was clear: the people do not want to be handed over like property in a boardroom deal. They want to be respected, the way Raila respected them.
In Mt Kenya, Ruto is also facing pressure. After the fallout with Rigathi Gachagua, a section of the region feels betrayed and is now listening to the opposition. Ruto is trying to repair that by bringing in new allies, but every new ally he brings in angers an old one.
If he gives Nyanza a big seat, Mt Kenya asks what is left for them. If he gives Mt Kenya a big seat, Rift Valley asks why they are being taken for granted. If he gives Western a promise, Coast asks when their turn will come.
This is exactly what Raila faced. Raila would promise the Luhya community a stake, and the Luo community would feel threatened. He would embrace Kalonzo Musyoka, and Musalia Mudavadi's people would feel sidelined.
He would work with Uhuru Kenyatta in the handshake, and his own base would accuse him of betrayal. He managed it for decades because people believed in him personally. They trusted Baba, even when they did not agree with the deal.
Ruto does not have that kind of personal trust across blocs. People follow him because of what he can give, not because of what he has suffered with them. And when the giving stops, or when one bloc feels it has been given less than another, the loyalty cracks.
A recent TIFA survey shows the danger. 74 per cent of ODM supporters backed the Linda Mwananchi position, while only 20 per cent supported the Oburu-led Linda Ground faction. Nationally, 52 per cent of Kenyans opposed the broad-based government, compared to 30 per cent who supported it.
That means Ruto's attempt to swallow ODM through Linda Ground is not giving him the votes he thought it would give him. Instead, it is pushing the real ODM base into the opposition.
Just like Raila, Ruto is also discovering that you cannot control a voting bloc through its leaders alone. Raila learned that when some of his lieutenants tried to deliver blocs that refused to move. Ruto is learning the same now.
Oburu may have the party certificate, the headquarters and the title of party leader, but he does not have the crowd. As Orengo has bluntly put it, Oburu has never tasted tear gas, never been detained, never carried the struggle. The crowd knows the difference.
In the end, the challenge Raila faced was not about winning one region strongly. It was about keeping all regions together without losing your soul. Raila survived it because he treated his blocs with respect, even his foes. He listened, he negotiated, he showed up.
If Ruto continues to rely on boardroom deals, zoning, and handing over communities through a few leaders, he will find himself in Raila's old challenge, but without Raila's old magic. Strong in one region, weak in another, and mistrusted in all of them for trying to use them against each other.
A year after Raila's death, the lesson is still the same: you cannot inherit a bloc. You have to earn it, bloc by bloc, with respect.
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