The survey released on Thursday, November 12, 2026, places Linda Mwananchi at 17 per cent, making it the second most preferred party nationally behind President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), which commands 25 per cent support.
ODM, which previously occupied the second position with 20 per cent in TIFA’s June survey, has fallen to 10 per cent, leaving it in third place.
The findings mark a significant political breakthrough for Sifuna’s camp, which emerged from disagreements within ODM over the party’s cooperation with Ruto’s administration and its political direction following the death of longtime leader Raila Odinga.
TIFA observed that Linda Mwananchi had risen rapidly from an initially insignificant position to become a major political force, largely attracting supporters who previously identified with ODM.
The movement's growing popularity is also reflected in its regional performance. It enjoys 40 per cent support in Western Kenya, 26 per cent in Nairobi, 18 per cent in Nyanza and 16 per cent at the Coast.
ODM, meanwhile, maintains its strongest support in Nyanza at 33 per cent, followed by 14 per cent at the Coast, 10 per cent in Western and nine per cent in Nairobi.
The latest figures suggest that although ODM retains considerable influence in its traditional strongholds, Sifuna's political formation is increasingly challenging its dominance beyond those regions.
The rivalry between the two camps has intensified as they position themselves ahead of the 2027 General Election, with both seeking to consolidate the political support previously associated with Raila.
ODM leader Oburu Oginga faces growing pressure as his faction pursues possible cooperation with UDA, a position that has attracted resistance from supporters of the Linda Mwananchi camp.
On October 30, the movement unveiled its proposed national leadership, with Sifuna named party leader-designate and Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya selected to lead its presidential campaign.
The group is scheduled to hold its National Delegates Convention on November 13 to consider and ratify the proposed leadership arrangements, although the process has attracted legal challenges.
Despite the impressive polling figures, TIFA cautioned that popularity does not necessarily translate into electoral victory, noting that Linda Mwananchi must establish a strong nationwide organisational network before the 2027 elections.
https://peopledaily.digital/inside-politics/sifunas-linda-mwananchi-overtakes-odm-to-become-kenyas-second-most-popular-party-tifa
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