President William Ruto and Linda Mwananchi leader Edwin Sifuna are now tied as joint frontrunners ahead of the 2027 presidential election, according to the latest opinion poll by Tifa Research.
The poll, released on November 12, 2026, shows Ruto and Sifuna each commanding 31% support among Kenyans asked who they would prefer as the next president.
According to Tifa, Ruto's support has grown consistently, from 18% in August 2022, to 19% in September 2025, 26% in November 2025, 24% in May 2026, 24% in June 2026, and now 31% in November 2026.
Sifuna's rise has been even more remarkable. The Nairobi Senator had 0% support in August 2022, September 2025, November 2025, and May 2026. He jumped to 5% in June 2026, 10% in the following survey, and then surged to 15%, before hitting 31% in November 2026.
The poll shows other presidential aspirants are losing ground.Kalonzo Musyoka, who peaked at 25% in May 2026, has now declined to 9% in November 2026. He had 23% in September 2025, 19% in November 2025, and 13% in June 2026 before the latest drop.
Fred Matiang'i has steadily declined from 32% in August 2022, to 21% in September 2025, 19% in November 2025, 6% in May 2026, 6% in June 2026, and now just 5% in November 2026.
Rigathi Gachagua, who peaked at 9% in May 2026, has declined to 4% in November 2026, after recording 4% in September 2025, 7% in November 2025, and 7% in June 2026.
Ndindi Nyoro records 1% support in November 2026, having been at 1% since May 2026.
Other candidates combined have also fallen to 1%, after peaking at 14% in September 2025.
The number of undecided voters remains high at 16% in November 2026, down from 20% in June 2026, but up from 28% in August 2022. Those who gave no response remain low and stable at 4%.
For Ruto, the poll is a boost. Despite criticism over the cost of living, protests, and opposition unity talks, he remains the joint most preferred candidate, and his numbers are going up.
For Sifuna, the poll is a major breakthrough. Just weeks after leaving ODM and launching his Linda Mwananchi Movement, he is now being seen by many Kenyans as a serious presidential contender and the face of the new opposition.
His supporters say the numbers prove that Kenyans want fresh leadership and a break from the old political order. They argue that Sifuna's message of defending ordinary citizens, Linda Mwananchi, is resonating across the country.
Critics, however, say it is still too early. They argue that polls can change quickly, and that 2027 is still many months away. They also point to the high number of undecided voters, who could swing the election either way.
But one thing is clear from the Tifa poll: the 2027 race is no longer a one-man show. It is now a two-horse race between Ruto and Sifuna, with other aspirants struggling to keep up.
If the trend continues, Kenya could be heading for one of its most competitive presidential elections in history.
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