Forty-three per cent of Kenyans oppose the Broad-Based Government (BBG), compared to 32 per cent who support the political arrangement between President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), a new opinion poll has shown.
The survey released by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) on Thursday indicates that opposition to the arrangement remains higher than its support, despite a gradual decline in the number of Kenyans opposed to the political partnership.
According to the findings, 15 per cent of respondents said they had no opinion on the Broad-Based Government, while another 10 per cent said they were unaware of the arrangement.
The combined proportion of Kenyans without an opinion or knowledge of the BBG stands at 25 per cent, suggesting that a significant section of the population remains undecided or unfamiliar with the political arrangement.
Regionally, the survey reveals significant differences in how Kenyans view the Broad-Based Government, with Northern Kenya recording the highest support at 68 per cent, followed by Central Rift at 57 per cent.
Nyanza also registered considerable support for the arrangement, with 38 per cent of respondents backing it.
However, the political arrangement faces its strongest resistance in Mt Kenya, where only 12 per cent of respondents said they supported it.
Nairobi recorded the second-lowest support at 13 per cent, while Lower Eastern registered 21 per cent.
Support was also relatively low in Coast and South Rift, where it stood at 25 and 26 per cent respectively.
Western recorded support of 37 per cent, while the survey placed Northern Kenya significantly ahead of other regions.
Support remains below one-third
A review of TIFA's previous six surveys shows that support for the Broad-Based Government among Kenyans has remained at or below one-third, except in November last year.
The latest findings indicate that support has remained relatively stable across the last three surveys, even as opposition to the arrangement has continued to decline.
The proportion of Kenyans opposed to the BBG dropped from 56 per cent to 52 per cent before reaching the current 43 per cent.
TIFA noted that the proportion of respondents who either had no opinion or were unaware of the arrangement had returned to 25 per cent, the same level recorded in May last year.
The research organisation, however, said the reasons behind the increase in this category were unclear.
Regionally, Northern Kenya has consistently recorded the strongest support for the Broad-Based Government, although the latest survey shows a significant increase from 43 per cent in TIFA's June survey to 68 per cent.
Central Rift follows, with Nyanza also recording relatively strong backing.
On the other hand, Mt Kenya has consistently registered the lowest levels of support, with minimal fluctuations across the surveys.
Support has also remained depressed in Coast, Nairobi, South Rift and Lower Eastern, although the latter two regions have experienced greater fluctuations.
The findings highlight the geographical divisions surrounding the political arrangement, with its strongest support concentrated in Northern and Central Rift while Nairobi and Mt Kenya remain its least supportive regions.
The results also point to a persistent challenge for the UDA-ODM partnership as the country moves towards the 2027 General Election, with a majority of Kenyans either opposing the arrangement or yet to express support for it.
The survey was conducted between October 26 and November 5, 2026, through face-to-face household interviews with a nationally representative sample of 2,036 respondents across nine regions: Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift and Western. Interviews were conducted mainly in Kiswahili, with some in English. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.16 per cent, although this is higher for smaller sub-samples.
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