President William Ruto and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna are currently tied as Kenyans’ most preferred candidates for the 2027 presidential election, according to a new opinion poll released on Thursday, November 12, 2026, by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA).
As reported by The Star, the latest TIFA survey places both leaders at 31 percent support among respondents nationwide. The findings signal a notable shift in Kenya’s evolving political landscape as parties and potential contenders position themselves ahead of the upcoming general election.
Throughout 2026, TIFA’s polling releases have tracked shifting voter sentiment across the country. Earlier surveys conducted by the research firm in May and June 2026 showed President Ruto holding a steady individual lead at 24 percent amid a fragmented opposition field. During that same period, Senator Sifuna—who has championed the grassroots-oriented Linda Mwananchi faction—recorded a steady rise in national visibility, moving from 10 percent in May to 15 percent in June before climbing to draw level with the Head of State in the November release.
Political observers and polling analysts note that the 2027 race remains highly competitive and fluid. Under Kenya’s constitutional framework, a winning presidential candidate must secure more than half of all votes cast (50 percent plus one), alongside at least 25 percent of the votes in a minimum of 24 counties.
With neither front-runner yet crossing that constitutional threshold in current polling, coalition-building, regional consolidations, and undecided voters across key battleground counties are expected to play a decisive role in shaping the race to State House.
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