Tribe, Money or Gen Z? Expert Reveals Who Could Win Ruto’s Battle for a New Majority

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As the 2027 race heats up, policy and governance expert Bosco Mutegi Kiura says African politics is still shaped by money, political parties and tribalism, but that a new force, young voters, could scramble the old arithmetic.

"The architecture of African politics is guided by money, political parties and tribalism. The tribal card always comes into play," Kiura said.

He argued that President William Ruto is trying to "demystify" tribalism by taking development to everyone under the slogan "Usawa ni Sawa."

Gachagua, he said, has stood by his word despite accusations of being tribal, asking voters, "Where is the food on the table?"

On Edwin Sifuna, Kiura said the Nairobi Senator enjoys the support of Gen Z and young people who "do not care about tribalism or even political parties."

The biggest question, he said, is why they do not have their own political party at this moment.

"They need to move from activism to the ballot."

Sifuna's camp has since moved on that front.

Nation describes him as leader of the Linda Mwananchi Movement Party, whose national secretariat launched on October 30, after months of dispute with the Registrar of Political Parties over its name.

Young voters are indeed a major bloc. Nation reports that the IEBC projects youth will make up nearly 70 percent of voters in the next election.

Ruto's side is also chasing young voters, with the government announcing youth-targeted initiatives such as Climate Worx.

"Usawa ni Sawa" is ODM's slogan, which party leaders have used while backing Ruto's re-election.

Gachagua, for his part, is working to consolidate Mt Kenya, with analysts noting the region is increasingly a battleground of competing political interests.

Linda Mwananchi has actively courted the Gen Z movement, promising to end an alleged state-sponsored campaign of abductions and killings targeting dissenting youths.

Ruto and the opposition therefore face the same test: turning support into votes.

Kiura's message is that activism alone will not win elections.

With the race for a new majority underway, tribe, money and the youth vote are all in play.

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