President William Ruto and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna are tied as Kenyans’ preferred candidates to win the 2027 presidential election, each commanding 31 per cent support in a new TIFA Research survey released on Thursday, November 12, 2026.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i trail the two leaders, receiving 4 per cent, 9 per cent and 5 per cent respectively.
According to TIFA, support for other opposition and possible presidential candidates combined stands at 19 per cent, a significant pool of support that could influence the contest if opposition leaders agree on a common candidate.
However, the research firm cautioned against assuming that the combined support would automatically shift to Sifuna or any other opposition hopeful.
“This survey finds President Ruto tied with Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna in terms of popularity regarding Kenyans’ preferred winner of next year’s presidential election (leaving aside the question of whether respondents expect/intend to vote). Whereas support for other Opposition/possible presidential candidates combined is substantial (19%) and enough to put Sifuna right up to the required vote-numbers to ‘win’ (50%), in reality no such assumption can be made, given thecompetition within the Opposition, and the inherent advantages of an incumbent. Still, if these popular figures/rankings persist, Sifuna’s status as the potential “single/united Opposition candidate – if there is one – will have to be acknowledged, ” TIFA stated.
TIFA observed that the senator’s growing popularity appears to have come at the expense of other opposition figures rather than Ruto.
“The results of TIFA’s previous three surveys as compared with the current one reveal how Sifuna’s rise has come at the expense of his Opposition colleagues, rather than of President Ruto,” the research firm noted.
The poll also described Sifuna’s emergence as particularly pronounced compared with previous pre-election surveys, although it cautioned that it was impossible to determine whether he and Ruto had reached their popularity peaks.
Regionally, Ruto leads in Central Rift with 59 per cent and Northern Kenya with 62 per cent, while Sifuna commands 55 per cent in Western, 39 per cent in Nairobi and 36 per cent at the Coast.
Kalonzo dominates Lower Eastern with 55 per cent, while Matiang’i records his strongest regional support in Nyanza at 12 per cent.
The survey found that preferred presidential candidates largely reflect respondents’ declared party affiliations.
UDA supporters favour Ruto, Linda Mwananchi supporters prefer Sifuna, Wiper supporters back Kalonzo, while Jubilee supporters lean towards Matiang’i, although his support within the party stands at 57 per cent.
TIFA also found that Sifuna is more popular than Gachagua among DCP supporters, receiving 34 per cent against Gachagua’s 25 per cent.
Among ODM supporters, Ruto attracts 42 per cent compared with Sifuna’s 33 per cent.
Among respondents who support Ruto’s re-election, Deputy President Kithure Kindiki is the preferred running mate, attracting 55 per cent.
Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga follows with 12 per cent, while approximately 9 per cent remain undecided about who should occupy the position.
The findings offer an early picture of the political calculations ahead of 2027, but TIFA cautioned that candidate preferences should not be confused with voting intentions.
The opposition’s ability to agree on a single candidate remains a major uncertainty, particularly given the number of politicians competing for support.
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