Edwin Sifuna has pulled level with President William Ruto in the race for 2027, with a new opinion poll showing the two men tied as Kenyans' preferred presidential candidates, The Star has reported.
The survey, released on Thursday by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA), has put both the head of state and the Nairobi senator at 31 per cent.
For a politician who has spent the past year building his profile, the figure has marked a striking rise, and it has handed his supporters fresh reason for optimism.
While Sifuna has gained ground, the rivals he has overtaken have steadily lost theirs.
Fred Matiang'i has watched his numbers slide from 21 per cent in September 2025 to 18 per cent two months later, then to 14 per cent in both May and June this year. His rating has dropped again to just five per cent in the latest round.
Former Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka has fared little better. After peaking at 25 per cent in November 2025, he has slipped to 19 per cent in May, 13 per cent in June and nine per cent in the newest survey.
For a veteran of Kenyan politics, the downward trend has been hard to miss.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has also seen his fortunes weaken. He has moved between two per cent in August 2022, six per cent in September 2025 and three per cent that November, before climbing to nine per cent in May 2026 and seven per cent in June. The latest poll has left him at four per cent.
Taken together, the figures have reshaped the conversation about who stands best placed to challenge the incumbent.
Analysts have long described the opposition field as crowded and fragmented, with several names splitting the anti-government vote. The new numbers have narrowed that picture considerably, and they have pushed Sifuna to the centre of the debate.
Still, polls have always offered only a snapshot, and the general election has not yet arrived.
Campaign teams on every side have begun studying the numbers, and they have started adjusting their plans accordingly.
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