THE END OF HANDSHAKE IS NIGH

It was a nightmare for the ruling party Jubilee to lose three electoral seats in by-elections barely a week after the High Court had stopped the relentless progress of its signature project – the BBI Bill and the planned referendum. The fact that there is no easy comeback option available must be really annoying for a party used to crushing opponents and generally ignoring court orders.

But what lies ahead may turn out to be even more catastrophic.

Early signs and expert opinion predict a very tough legal battle to overturn a High Court ruling that found the process that gave birth to the BBI – from the Handshake to the draft Bill now at the Senate – illegal, unlawful, hence unconstitutional.

Our bright lawyers will have their day in court poking holes at the reasoning of the High Court judges and may well persuade the appeal bench that the High Court erred on some grounds. 

But it is generally agreed that it will be a titanic effort to overturn the judgment on all the 20 grounds.

Lawyers will have to do this twice because this battle will not end at the Court of Appeal. 

Whoever loses there will most certainly dash to the Supreme Court and our newly minted Chief Justice Martha Koome and her colleagues will join the fray. 

Her pronouncement on this case will be received with tremendous interest because of the huge state investment in the matter. And the appeals must be completed in record time to meet the legally stipulated period between end of a referendum and holding of a general election.

Heavy-handedness

As it hops from court to court, the BBI alliance is simultaneously suffering its stiffest political test to date. 

The fallout from the by-election losses has opened a can of worms Jubilee could give anything to hurriedly bury. 

No less a person than the ODM leader Raila Odinga railed at the heavy-handedness of the state operatives (basically police and senior state employees) during the Bonchari by-elections.

Voters and election officials from other parties were locked up without reason. The heavy presence of police officers during campaigns that were largely peaceful was unnerving. 

In one well-publicised incident, scores of armed police officers broke down the gate of Kisii Governor James Ongwae’s home on the pretext that he was holding an illegal ODM meeting in his home!

While Mr Odinga did not explicitly threaten that the experience in Bonchari could trigger a re-evaluation of the relationship between ODM and Jubilee, party officials Timothy Bosire and Edwin Sifuna were clear that the behaviour depicted in Bonchari was not acceptable from a partner. 

The sour relations had started during the lead-up to the elections, with Jubilee proposing that ODM does not field a candidate because of the BBI partnership.

If the Bonchari fallout is a direct threat to the BBI partnership, the loss in Juja constituency rubs salt onto a wet wound because the winner there is allied to the Deputy President. 

Race for Presidency

It was not expected that the constituency bordering that of the President could embarrass him in the manner that it did, and in the process hand victory to the one person that he is committed to humiliate and lock of the race for the Presidency.

It is also significant for the larger Mountain region where, following the overwhelming vote that the BBI Bill got in Parliament, it appeared DP William Ruto’s support was in doubt. 

There is now a fresh spring in the steps of the Ruto Brigade in the Mountain region just as there is a sinking feeling in the ship being steered by President Uhuru Kenyatta.

So, what now?

It is right and expected for the BBI team to go to court, however bleak the chances appear to be. 

And, unwise though it is, I expect that President Kenyatta and Mr Odinga will put on a brave face and pretend that the political terrain remains as was three weeks ago and that they still control the game going into next year’s general election.

But the ground has shifted. 

ODM needs to define and implement its own strategy for next year and Jubilee too needs to give clarity about its intentions, not least identify its presidential flagbearer. 

Failing that, it could appear the race for the presidency might end up being a lot less complicated and competitive for DP Ruto than most people thought.

By Nation Africa