EVENTS THAT LED TO ODM DISINTEGRATION

ODM social media warriors spent the past week either marinating in silent anger or posting messages in vernacular. Whenever Kenyans resort to mother tongue when discussing politics, know that things are thick for them.

The handshake they have banked on for three years is coming apart. It did not deliver the Chief Justice job to the lake. With the nomination of Martha Koome, the heads of the three arms of government are from Mt Kenya region.

Within hours of concluding interviews for a Supreme Court judge on Wednesday, the Judicial Service Commission rushed the name of Court of Appeal president William Ouko for appointment, perhaps to cool the disappointment in the lake region. But it was too little to late.

A new war had already broken out within ODM over the handshake. Rarieda MP Otiende Amollo was kicked out as vice chair of the National Assembly Justice and Legal Affairs Committee.

His sin? He and senators James Orengo (Siaya) and Okong’o Omogeni (Nyamira) signed a majority committee report that declared sections of the Constitution of Kenya (Amendment) Bill, 2020 unconstitutional.

That was a slap on the face of ODM leader Raila Odinga who wanted his party to support the Bill without question. It is his deal with President Kenyatta.

But it is not only the disputed constitutionality of the Bill that has thrown ODM into turmoil. Luo Nyanza, the party’s ethnic bedrock, will get only a handful of the proposed 70 new constituencies under BBI. Mt Kenya will be the biggest beneficiary.

This has become the new rallying point for opposition to BBI among Raila’s usually fanatical supporters, or cows as Suna MP Junet Mohamed famously described them.

Why are they realising this only now? Did the ODM people read the draft and make any suggestions during public participation? Did they read the document before approving it during the nationwide signature collection? Did Luo Nyanza MCAs scrutinise the Bill before they unanimously passed it in record time in the county assemblies?

With allies like Otiende and Orengo gone and Raila left with “cows” such as Junet and chairman John Mbadi, the ODM leader is isolated and vulnerable to the political machinations of his handshake brother, Uhuru, who can easily dump him without any political consequences.

They didn’t care as long as Baba said the document was fine. But now the reality has hit them. Uhuru has failed to convince his people to back Raila as his successor in 2022. In fact, he has not even tried, knowing well his handshake partner is unelectable in Mt Kenya.

So, what will Baba’s people get in return for supporting Uhuru since the handshake on March 9, 2018? Not the presidency, the ultimate goal.

In an unprecedented turn of events, Raila is now facing hostility from his supporters. Luo Nyanza is divided between those who share Raila’s BBI agenda and a growing number of critical leaders and residents who question his wisdom and intentions.Raila did not submit his application for the 2022 ODM presidential ticket even after the deadline was extended, leaving his followers in the dark about his future political plans.

Is he in the 2022 race or has he decided to retire? Why doesn’t he openly tell his party and supporters what his exact plans are? This alone is a spectacular failure of leadership as followers are left confused just 15 months to the next election.

The removal of Otiende and fallout with Orengo is a punishment for telling Baba the truth. This confirms the open secret that Raila is a dictator who treats the party as personal property.

With allies like Otiende and Orengo gone and Raila left with “cows” such as Junet and chairman John Mbadi, the ODM leader is isolated and vulnerable to the political machinations of his handshake brother, Uhuru, who can easily dump him without any political consequences.

The greed for power and money within ODM long degraded what many thought was an ideologically driven party offering a national transformation agenda. Raila has over time cut off from the party everyone who mattered and remains surrounded by self-declared cows.

But the long era of blind loyalty to Raila – ‘Baba knows best’ – has come to an end. ODM must wake up from denial and accept that Raila’s time is up. He is not growing younger. It is unlikely he will be in the ballot next year. His followers must begin to beat a new political path to a future without Baba.

By The Star